Many academics feel paralysed when facing uncertain career decisions, often because they’re working with incomplete information. Should you take that visiting fellowship? Switch institutions? Start a new research program? The pressure to make the “right” choice can be overwhelming, especially when the stakes feel high and the path forward isn’t clear.

Information reduces uncertainty

While uncertainty can never be completely eliminated, each piece of relevant information helps narrow the range of possible outcomes. Instead, we can run small experiments to gather useful information before making bigger commitments. Every small experiment generates data points that help clarify your options, transforming vague possibilities into concrete choices you can evaluate.

Acknowledging uncertainty is the first step in measuring and narrowing it.

Annie Duke. Thinking in Bets.

Think of these experiments as low-stakes ways to test the waters. Rather than endlessly analysing options or waiting for perfect clarity, you can take small actions that generate real feedback about potential paths forward.

Uncertain career decisions

Here are some common academic decisions that typically have high levels of uncertainty, and suggestions for low-stakes experiments you might run:

Considering a new research direction?

• Write a pilot paper or conference abstract
• Run a small preliminary study
• Give a workshop in the new area
• Collaborate on a related project before leading your own

Thinking about changing institutions?

• Visit for a short research stay
• Organise a joint seminar
• Collaborate with potential future colleagues
• Teach a guest lecture

Unsure about leadership roles?

• Chair a committee before heading a department
• Lead a small research team before managing a centre
• Guest edit a journal issue before becoming editor
• Coordinate a conference track before organising the full event

Benefits of small experiments

When facing uncertain career decisions, these experiments provide multiple benefits:

• Requires minimal resources
• Creates real-world feedback
• Builds valuable experience
• Can open unexpected opportunities
• Lets you adjust course based on what you learn

What makes a decision great is not that it has a great outcome. A great decision is the result of a good process, and that process must include an attempt to accurately represent our own state of knowledge.

Annie Duke. Thinking in Bets.

Most importantly, running small experiments shifts you from passive uncertainty to active learning. Instead of feeling stuck in analysis-paralysis, you’re gathering concrete information to inform your choices. Each small test helps you understand the reality of a potential path, rather than just imagining it. By using small experiments to navigate uncertain career decisions, you can move from analysis to action.

Remember: The goal isn’t to eliminate uncertainty completely. It’s to reduce it enough to make more confident choices while keeping the costs of being wrong manageable. Start small, learn fast, and use that knowledge to guide your next steps.

Ready to make more strategic career moves? The Academic Career Development course helps you build a framework for making confident decisions that align with your professional goals.